April 2018

Much media attention, and indeed the attention of the public and the opinion pollsters, has been focused on the Government’s plans to introduce unrestricted access to abortion for the first three months (12 weeks) of pregnancy.

Significantly less attention has been focused on the much more liberal element of the proposal, which allows abortion, on UK grounds, up to viability, or the moment a child can, in the opinion of medical professionals, survive outside the womb.

It is necessary to substantiate what “viability” usually means. While the point of viability grows earlier as technology advances, the most comprehensive studies on the subject indicate^[1] that at 24 weeks, a baby has a 50% chance of survival outside the womb, falling to less than 20% at 22 weeks, and rising to over 90% at 27 weeks. 24 weeks, therefore, is the point at which an unborn child has about a 50% chance of surviving outside the womb. This is six months into pregnancy.

The wording in the Government’s draft heads of bill^[2] (head four) make clear that abortions will be legal in some circumstances until this point:

In the UK, ground C is the “abortion on request” ground.

The similarities to this ground in the Government’s proposed legislation are obvious:

– Risk to health, including mental health
– Two doctors to sign off
– Up to 24 weeks (UK) or viability (Ireland, usually defined as around the 24^th week).

In Ireland, the wording is slightly different, and on this point, the Government and the YES campaign may seek to rely:

In Ireland, the proposed legislation reads “serious risk”, whereas in the UK, it reads “risk greater than if the pregnancy were continued”.

This difference, which will be exaggerated by the YES campaign, relies on the idea that doctors will implement strict and restrictive guidelines under which this ground is interpreted. It also relies on the very thin hope that such guidelines would not be found in breach of the will of the people should this legislation be adopted.

In this article, Justine McCarthy writes:

"Ailbhe Smyth, the convener of the Coalition to Repeal the Eighth Amendment, said legislating for “serious risk” would be unacceptable and legally problematic."

“In our view, it would be dangerous to qualify the risk. A law cannot determine a medical decision,” Smyth said. “Doctors who gave evidence . . . said medicine is not an exact science and they need to be able to make decisions.”

There, on the record, is the first indication that as soon as this referendum is passed, a campaign to widen access to abortion up to six months will begin.

Dr. Boylan’s words are worth highlighting:

“It should be the woman’s assessment of the risk that counts”

In other words, the man responsible for the organisation that will practically implement head 4 of the bill is on the record stating that it will not be medical practitioners whose opinions count – but those of people who are not medically qualified to determine medical risk.

Conclusions – Factual statements

1) A Yes vote absolutely legalises abortion up to six months, or “viability”.

2) Abortion up to six months is legalised on UK-style “2 doctors” basis

3) Abortion up to six months includes “mental health” grounds, under which 97% of all UK abortions are carried out.

4) It is the official position of Together for Yes that this is too restrictive.

5) It is the on the record position of the Chairman of the Institute of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists that the “2 doctors” should actually be subservient to the opinions of a non-medically qualified person (the patient).

So far, in this debate, “12 weeks” has been the position of the media, and of politicians.

That is inaccurate, and misleading.

A yes vote goes much further than 12 weeks. It legalises abortion up to six months.

In fact, in some cases, where an unborn child is very seriously ill, it legalises abortion up to birth.

This simply goes too far for most Irish voters. The problem is that, until now, hardly any of them have been informed about it.